Not All Revenue Is Valued Equally

Most companies are valued by applying a multiple to the businesses EBITDA (earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization). However, buyers will closely examine the revenue streams generating that EBITDA and assess the quality thereof. Here are a few things buyers will look for when assessing a company’s revenue streams.

1. Revenue Consistency

The more stable and predictable the revenue stream and the profit therefrom, the more the buyer will be willing to pay. This provides forward visibility and mitigates risk, because the revenue can be counted on in the future with a high degree of certainty. Most subscription models would fall into this category. Assuming customer churn is low, and the lifetime value of the customer outweighs the customer acquisition costs, buyers will pay up for this type of business model. On the flip side, earnings generated from project based work or one-time events will typically be heavily discounted.

2. Customer Diversity

One strong customer can get a business up and going, but diversity is required to mitigate risk. This also applies to customer concentration within revenue streams. If the revenue stream would suffer meaningfully due to the loss of one or two customers, buyers will take this into account. Customer concentration will not only lower the value of a company but might scare off buyers altogether.

3. Margins

Buyers will pay great attention to a company’s margins and assess the overall business by comparing margins to like companies. Superior margins oftentimes mean a competitive advantage, which gives a buyer greater comfort that the revenue and profit therefrom is protected.  In addition to looking at a company’s overall margins, buyers will assess the margin contributed by each revenue stream.  Growth in revenue streams with higher margins will be rewarded, while revenue with lower margins, even if growing, will often be discounted.

Conclusion

These are important factors to consider when operating and growing your business. Yet, every company and industry is different and not every business model can have the recurring revenue and customer diversification of Netflix. If you want to know how you measure up in these areas, benchmark yourself against competitors or companies with a business model similar to your own. Taking action to improve and be the best among your peers in these areas will not only increase the value of your company, it will mitigate the risk you have as an owner.

How External Market Factors Drive Your Company’s Valuation

“I should have sold when I had the chance,” is a phrase our advisors hear much more often than “I sold too early.”
Timing a transaction is tricky, because it’s influenced by a variety of internal and external factors, such as:
– Government policy
– Capital markets
– Macro-economic forces
– Industry life-cycles
– The company’s life-cycle
– Personal needs and desires of the owner


Each one of these factors is important to consider, but credit markets have historically proven to be one of the most powerful external force in both inflating and deflating valuations. There are two reasons why.

Rate of Return

In the world of investing, return is commensurate with risk. The greater the risk, the higher the need for return. Economic risk is measured by determining the rate of return required for an equivalent investment facing an equivalent level of risk. This rate of return is called the “discount rate”. The capital used to buy a company is typically a combination of debt and equity. Equity can be in the form of either company stock or cash, and debt is borrowed money the acquiring firm/company pays interest on. Each source of funds is obtained at a different cost, so the “weighted average cost of capital” is used to determining the discount rate. As interest rates go down, present values go up, making valuations higher. A small change in the discount rate can result in large changes in valuation. Summed up simply, when paying higher interest rates, the investor requires a higher rate of return, which makes valuations go down, and vice versa.

Money Supply

Money supply also heavily influences business valuations. When the economy sputters, the fed lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. When money is cheap and the economy bottoms out, capital markets begin to loosen the purse strings. Early investors buy cheap, but more money competing for a limited number of assets drives valuations higher, and investors, emboldened by their access to debt, and lower discount rates, start to take on more risk. Early investors start to see good returns and those on the sidelines, not wanting to miss out, come in to drive valuations even higher. Sometimes, fundamentals yield to speculation and for a period “the sky is the limit.” But then, fundamentals return, company’s default on their debt, capital markets get scared and stop lending, and in a small fraction of the time it took to inflate, asset values crater.